For probabilities, use Fermi numbers, not words

Why do smart, driven founders fail, despite having great ideas and execution? This model offers an answer, and a path to increase the chance of success.

You redesign your entire website, customers and employees say it's better, but none of the metrics change… Does design even matter?

Oh you secretive devil! The last thing you need is anyone finding out about your startup. Like competitors. Or customers.

This is the reason that startups succeed despite their many weaknesses. And it's a reason to build a startup in the first place.

The two main business modalities are more different than you expect. When you hit PMF, it's a culture-shift to switch from one to the other.