A Smart Bear

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When you have nothing: How to find potential customers to interview
22 Dec 2024 | original ↗

How do you find potential customers to interview before you have a product, a website, or even a name?

Solving the Low-Budget Online Marketing Dilemma
15 Dec 2024 | original ↗

Low on cash but need marketing results? Here are four specific things you can do to grow on a budget.

Brittle Points: How to make companies robust
8 Dec 2024 | original ↗

Brittleness is when the company fails because just one component breaks. Learn some strategies for fixing Brittle Points.

Scars
1 Dec 2024 | original ↗

Our emotional baggage and experience make us unique, but also serve as blinders.

Intense Asymmetry and Self-Flagellation
24 Nov 2024 | original ↗

Erica Douglass sold her company for $1M, yet still struggles with self-worth; why driven people can't escape Impostor Syndrome.

p-Hacking your A/B tests
17 Nov 2024 | original ↗

Half of your "successful" A/B tests are false-positives. This is why, and how to fix it.

A life-changing challenge guided by Pascal's Wager
10 Nov 2024 | original ↗

Applying Pascal's Wager: Humility wins, arrogance loses.

No wait, of course THAT is the single most important SaaS metric
3 Nov 2024 | original ↗

Is it LTV? Retention? NRR? Magic Number? Rule of 40? Or: Do you need to un-ask the question.

Tech Support is sales
27 Oct 2024 | original ↗

Tech support isn't just troubleshooting; it's the face of your company. Which means it's your brand, your positioning, and when it's excellent, it is sales.

The Serengeti Plain: Fallacies that aren't fallacies
20 Oct 2024 | original ↗

A contrarian look at logical "fallacies" that maybe aren't so illogical after all.

You're a little company, now act like one
13 Oct 2024 | original ↗

You're afraid that looking like being a small company means you'll lose sales. It's actually the opposite -- you're alienating your best customers.

Why startup biz dev deals almost never get done
6 Oct 2024 | original ↗

Startups fail at biz dev because their proposals don't make sense to bigger companies. Here's how to adjust your approach.

Pivot Points
29 Sept 2024 | original ↗

Not "enabling constraints", not "weaknesses", not even "strengths". The concept of a "Pivot Point" grapples with the same reality, but more constructive and useful.

The Code is your Enemy
22 Sept 2024 | original ↗

A short pep talk I delivered to kick off a Three-Day Startup challenge event. And overwhelming confirmation that the lesson is correct.

Ignoring the Wisdom of Crowds
15 Sept 2024 | original ↗

Discover how to leverage the wisdom of the crowds, but also when to avoid it, as it can easily lead you astray.

Legacy
8 Sept 2024 | original ↗

Humans have always tried to live forever. Maybe you can, but not in the way you imagine.

Human + Fallible = Love; Corporate + Sterile = Refund
1 Sept 2024 | original ↗

People love and forgive humans, not corporations. Expose your humanity to earn loyal, happy customers, even when you mess up.

Profitable on day one!
25 Aug 2024 | original ↗

You're not profitable if you couldn't afford someone else to do your job. $1000/mo isn't profitable. Fix your definition of "profitable," and build a truly profitable business.

The mid-market briar patch
18 Aug 2024 | original ↗

Mid-sized companies: Small enough to have small budgets, big enough for bureaucratic nightmares.

Individual efficiency vs administrative efficiency
11 Aug 2024 | original ↗

When to prioritize individual autonomy, and when to standardize for global optimization.

Double your productivity without more work or stress
4 Aug 2024 | original ↗

People love to say that getting "1% better per day" makes you 37x better after a year, but this obviously makes no sense. But 2x better is possible.

"Authentic" is dead. And so is "is dead."
28 Jul 2024 | original ↗

It's lazy writing. It's boring and undifferentiated. Say something meaningful, specific, evocative, so your website wins, and you can be proud of it.

How much of success is luck?
21 Jul 2024 | original ↗

"You're so lucky." That's true. There's also decades of sacrifice, emotional turmoil, long hours, perseverance. So… is it lucky?

How annual pre-pay creates an infinite marketing budget
14 Jul 2024 | original ↗

Dozens of founders have used this technique to transform the cash-flow of their businesses. Now it's your turn.

Procrastinate for Success!
7 Jul 2024 | original ↗

Procrastination can be a useful tool. You can't do everything. So don't.

Not disruptive, and proud of it
30 Jun 2024 | original ↗

I remember "disruptive" when it was called a "paradigm shift." You should be worrying more about making something people want to buy, and less about disrupting everything.

"It's a Balance" isn't always the answer
23 Jun 2024 | original ↗

Resolve decision-making conflicts by selecting the right approach: Make a bold choice, synthesize a new solution, or find the balance.

Being who you are, while becoming better
16 Jun 2024 | original ↗

We're told "be yourself" to seek happiness and success. But what if "being yourself" also means striving to become better? What is "yourself?"

The Lindy Effect on startup potential
9 Jun 2024 | original ↗

On average, you're halfway to your final destination. How, then, do we not only double from here, but 10x?

When being "first" is not a competitive advantage
2 Jun 2024 | original ↗

Is it good to be "first?" It seems so -- what's the point of being a copycat? While "first" sounds impressive, in reality it's often not an advantage.

Disentangling the three languages: Customers, Product, Business
26 May 2024 | original ↗

Stop talking past each other. Translate between the three "languages" of customer desires, product features, and business goals.

Rare things become common at scale
19 May 2024 | original ↗

Software doesn't scale through architecture and automation alone. New, more difficult problems appear that didn't exist before, causing new downstream consequences.

Hello, I'm 1074018628
12 May 2024 | original ↗

Is "customer service" a genuine service? Or is it a shield so that most people at your company never have to speak to one of those pesky customers?

Adjacency Matrix: How to expand after PMF
5 May 2024 | original ↗

A simple workshop that evaluates new business ideas relative to your existing strengths -- the key to expanding without overreaching.

Capturing luck with "or" instead of "and"
28 Apr 2024 | original ↗

Luck always plays a role in startups, but there are ways to better capture upside and mitigate downside.

It's a torturous chaos until it isn't
21 Apr 2024 | original ↗

Even at wildly successful startups, the first few years are gut-wrenching, uncertain, on the brink of collapse, where pessimism is realism, and yet optimism is required.

Learn by Copy
14 Apr 2024 | original ↗

In America we're trained that all copying is bad; of course plagiarism is, but perhaps we're throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

The "Convergent" theory of finding truth in darkness
7 Apr 2024 | original ↗

How to tell the difference between a truly great startup idea, and people saying "Sure, sounds good" when they really mean "No, I'm not buying."

Avoid blundering: 80% of a winning strategy
31 Mar 2024 | original ↗

Why do startups typically fail? It turns out that "avoiding those things" is already a plan for success.

Color Wheels are wrong? How color vision actually works
24 Mar 2024 | original ↗

Artists say all colors are a mixture of red, yellow, and blue. But physics and TV screens and printers disagree. How does color really work?

Stubborn Visionaries & Pigheaded Fools
17 Mar 2024 | original ↗

How do you know when to stop, versus when to push through? You don't, not even in hindsight. But these guiding questions can help.

The Pattern-Seeking Fallacy
10 Mar 2024 | original ↗

We humans are terrible at discerning patterns from randomness, and in marketing data we unwittingly find "insights" that are actually noise. Here's how to fix that.

AI startups require new strategies: This time it's actually different
3 Mar 2024 | original ↗

The typical dynamics between startups and incumbents do not apply in AI as they did in previous technology revolutions like mobile and the Internet. Ignore this at your peril.

How startups beat incumbents
25 Feb 2024 | original ↗

A startup can beat a large, successful incumbent, if it does things the incumbent can not or will not do. Here are those things.

Easy statistics for A/B testing and hamsters
18 Feb 2024 | original ↗

A/B testing tools often lie about whether something is "statistically significant." Here's an extremely simple, mathematically sound formula to compute it for yourself.

Easy to criticize, hard to create
11 Feb 2024 | original ↗

It's easy to explain why any given business will fail. So what? But neither is it wise to totally ignore the critics.

Deciding whether an investment is worthwhile
4 Feb 2024 | original ↗

Why "expected value" doesn't work; here's a better framework for making long-term investments in your career, startup, and life.

Pick one and own it
28 Jan 2024 | original ↗

What if your company could have only one single advantage over the competition? This exercise will make your positioning and strategy stronger.

The "errors" that mean you're doing it right
21 Jan 2024 | original ↗

Some things appear to be mistakes, but in fact should be celebrated as the expected outcomes of great decisions.

How to measure the accuracy of forecasts
14 Jan 2024 | original ↗

How do you assess forecasts, when the forecast is only a probability? It's not just about accuracy. Let's dive into the math.

Selling to Carol: Why targeting an ICP brings 10x more customers than you expected
7 Jan 2024 | original ↗

Targeting your "Ideal Customer Profile" (ICP) is the best way to differentiate and win sales, but does it limit your target market?

"ROI" is the wrong way to sell your product
31 Dec 2023 | original ↗

Customers ask for ROI calculations to justify purchasing your software, but it still doesn't convince them. Here's what to do instead.

The roadmap to Product/Market Fit (PMF)… maybe
24 Dec 2023 | original ↗

This eight-step process brought WP Engine from an idea to a Unicorn. While there are other roads to Product/Market Fit, consider copying some of these ideas.

The unfortunate math behind consulting companies
17 Dec 2023 | original ↗

Hiring even one person creates a lot less profit than you'd think, and launching a product rarely works out. Here are some tips for consulting companies.

How many things should there be? (Hint: Not 10)
10 Dec 2023 | original ↗

If we happened to evolve with nine fingers, we would have "Top 9" lists. So, a "Top 10" list probably doesn't have the correct number of things.

Change: Damned if you do, damned more if you don't
3 Dec 2023 | original ↗

Everyone wants change, but doesn't want to change. Though inevitable, change is uncomfortable and exhausting. Manage it with kindness.

Quarterly strategic planning using the fairytale structure
26 Nov 2023 | original ↗

Traditional fairytale structure fits naturally in our brains, and thus can guide strategic problem-analysis, and a plan that everyone understands.

Reputation isn't as powerful as you imagine
19 Nov 2023 | original ↗

Blogger with tens of thousands of subscribers launches a new venture… and gets only 2 signups. Not the advantage you thought it was.

You're a real company when…
12 Nov 2023 | original ↗

What marks the moment when you become a "real" company?

Product/Market Fit (PMF): Experience & Data
5 Nov 2023 | original ↗

Companies that achieve Product/Market Fit -- both self-funded and VC-funded -- exhibit the same prototypical metrics curves and subjective experiences.

Rich vs. King in the Real World: Why I sold my company
29 Oct 2023 | original ↗

Reflecting on selling Smart Bear in 2007, offering insights for entrepreneurs facing similar decisions.

Metrics that cannot even be measured in retrospect
22 Oct 2023 | original ↗

Some of the most enticing, important metrics are impossible to measure, even after the fact. Here's how to identify and avoid this trap.

Building in public forces true competitive advantage
15 Oct 2023 | original ↗

"Building in public" is popular: How fun when strangers cheer you on! But isn't competitive advantage ruined when competitors know your growth rate and steal your source code?

Your non-linear problem of 90% utilization
8 Oct 2023 | original ↗

Is everyone working very hard, all the time, and yet accomplishing 1/10th of what it seems they should? Maybe this is why.

Never say "no," but rarely say "yes."
1 Oct 2023 | original ↗

"Focus" requires saying "no" to most things, but there's a way to do it that allows you to say "yes" exactly when it matters most.

The fundamental forces of scale
24 Sept 2023 | original ↗

These forces make larger companies slower and more difficult to execute, but also more effective when harnessed and leveraged.

The only way to guarantee startup success
17 Sept 2023 | original ↗

What is it like to reach the pinnacle of success? Is that where you attain happiness and fulfillment? Or are those found right here, right now.

Stop saying "fail"
10 Sept 2023 | original ↗

Language shapes our perception of setbacks. Use words other than "failure" to describe situations and to suggest the next step.

Your customers hate MVPs. Make a SLC instead.
3 Sept 2023 | original ↗

"MVP" implies a selfish process, abusing customers so you can "learn." Instead, make the first version SLC: Simple, Loveable, and Complete.

Worse, but unique
27 Aug 2023 | original ↗

An objectively "worse" strategy can win, if it leverages something unique or unexpected. Startups can use this concept to beat incumbents.

Impostor Syndrome: Why I felt like a fraud, and how I overcame it
20 Aug 2023 | original ↗

Most high-performing people experience Impostor Syndrome. I did too. When you understand the cause, you can defeat it.

What makes a strategy great
13 Aug 2023 | original ↗

Most so-called "strategies" are vague, wishful thinking, written once and never seen again. Don't do that. These are the characteristics of great strategy.

Startup identity & the sadness of a successful exit
6 Aug 2023 | original ↗

Many founders experience a profound and prolonged sadness after selling their company. But "not selling" might be worse. Maybe my story will help you.

In command
30 Jul 2023 | original ↗

Being "in control" is impossible, perhaps not even desirable. Being "in command" is ideal: honest, introspective, agile, aware, and proactive.

Distinguishing constructive criticism from bad business advice
24 Jul 2023 | original ↗

Beware of advice that tries to change who you are. True wisdom guides you to a better version of yourself.

Selecting the right product metrics (KPIs)
16 Jul 2023 | original ↗

A novel system for selecting and presenting product KPIs, satisfying not only the product team, but also stakeholders, executives, and customers.

Business Advice Plagued by Survivor Bias
9 Jul 2023 | original ↗

Advice from "successful entrepreneurs" might be unreliable due to Survivor Bias. What's real, and what's random?

For probabilities, use Fermi numbers, not words
2 Jul 2023 | original ↗

Don't use phrases like "unlikely" or "almost certainly." Here's real-world data showing why not, and what to do instead.

Discount gambit
25 Jun 2023 | original ↗

Discounting is the typical sales technique, but refusing to discount can lead to a much better business, even in the Enterprise.

The three kinds of leverage that anchor effective strategies
18 Jun 2023 | original ↗

Leveraging strengths -- not "fixing weaknesses" -- is how to win. Better when differentiated. Best when durable. Here's how to create leverage.

Satisficing vs Maximizing
11 Jun 2023 | original ↗

Fast, or Best? Choose your decision-making goal wisely, especially if you're a natural perfectionist.

Using the Needs Stack for competitive strategy
4 Jun 2023 | original ↗

This simple method positions your product to be more valuable, especially against competitors who aim to disrupt you, or you them.

In its emptiness, there is the function of a startup
28 May 2023 | original ↗

Everything about a startup changes over time. The few things that don't, are its essence. The voyage is meaningless, unless you decide what those things are.

Willingness-to-pay: Creating permanent competitive advantage, for the right reasons
21 May 2023 | original ↗

This fresh take on "Willingness-to-Pay" analyzes three types of customer motivation, leading to superior strategies for growth that also better the world.

You can have two Big Things, but not three
14 May 2023 | original ↗

No you can't "have it all." You can have two things, but not three.

More money if you do, more money if you don't
14 May 2023 | original ↗

A business always takes more money than you expect, even when you take this fact into account. Here's why.

What a startup does to you. Or: A celebration of new life
7 May 2023 | original ↗

A startup is a crucible -- a fiery place that tests your limits, not by probing them but by violently exceeding them, all of the time. It's worth it.

How repositioning a product allows you to 8x its price
30 Apr 2023 | original ↗

You can charge much more than you think, if you reposition your value-proposition. Here's how.

When you want to quit because it's just not worth it
23 Apr 2023 | original ↗

Are you crying in the shower because you can't handle it anymore? Beyond Impostor Syndrome: Complete melt-down? Well, at least you're in good company.

Excuse me, is there a problem?
16 Apr 2023 | original ↗

Many startups fail despite identifying a real problem and building a product that solves that problem. This explains why, so you can avoid their fate.

When should a decision be fast, or slow?
9 Apr 2023 | original ↗

Decisions should usually be made quickly, to accelerate action and learning. But sometimes it really is smarter to take your time. Here's how to decide.

Pricing determines your business model
2 Apr 2023 | original ↗

Pricing is inextricably linked to brand, product, and purchasing decisions. It cannot be "figured out later," because it determines your business model today.

Navigating the unpredictability of everything
19 Mar 2023 | original ↗

We dramatically, repeatedly fail to predict the future. Does that mean "strategy" is senseless? No, it means you need these techniques to navigate a volatile world.

Finding Fulfillment
25 Dec 2022 | original ↗

What creates a fulfilling existence? Exploration leads to a framework I've used for years for myself and the people around me. I hope it helps you too.

The Iterative-Hypothesis customer development method
17 Sept 2022 | original ↗

A simple but effective system, used to vet what is now a Unicorn, for generating insights about how your potential customers think, what they need, and what they'll buy.

JIT selection from independent streams: An alternative to the "big backlog" of work
23 Aug 2022 | original ↗

The vaunted "single-threaded, ordered list" confuses "prioritization" with "work-planning," and forces comparisons of the un-comparable. Here's the solution.

Rocks, Pebbles, Sand: How to implement in practice
17 Jul 2022 | original ↗

This complete work-prioritization framework builds on the simplistic "Rocks, Pebbles, Sand" analogy, adding the details you need in the real world.

Binstack: Making a maximal multi-dimensional decision
2 Jul 2022 | original ↗

Binstack is a technique for selecting the "single most impactful" solution when there are multiple, incomparable dimensions to evaluate.

Fermi ROI: Fixing the ROI rubric
20 Jun 2022 | original ↗

Traditional rubrics fail to reveal the best answers, or how to explain those answers to others. After explaining why, the following system solves both failures.

The "Talk vs Walk" workshop
8 Jun 2022 | original ↗

We invented this strategic exercise at WP Engine -- engaging both Marketing and Product, generating actions for both sides that make products more desirable and competitive.

Productive meeting activities: Leverage the team, empower the individual
24 May 2022 | original ↗

Meetings are most productive when we create something that none of us could have created alone. Here are several ways to use meeting time wisely.

Moats: Durable competitive advantage
7 May 2022 | original ↗

Industries commoditize over time, delivering similar products at similar prices resulting in low profit. Moats are the antedote; your strategy must create some.

The "Great" Product Manager, a.k.a. the Impossible Product Manager
23 Apr 2022 | original ↗

According to the Internet, being a Product Manager is impossible. Can you ever measure up? No. But don't worry, there's a better answer.

Failure to face the truth
9 Apr 2022 | original ↗

This admonition recurs in myriad books, frameworks, and topics, across decades of time. When something is so consistent, it must be wisdom.

Extreme brainstorming questions to trigger new, better ideas
26 Mar 2022 | original ↗

We know, "no idea is a bad idea," but brainstorming is often unsuccessful. These prompts actually work. They could even lead to a unique business model.

The Elephant in the room: The myth of exponential hypergrowth
5 Mar 2022 | original ↗

Even Facebook and Slack did not grow "exponentially," as frequently described. Here is the correct model that you can use to understand and affect growth.

Who's lying?
26 Feb 2022 | original ↗

A lesson all pilots know: How you must use multiple dials, employing different sources of energy, to report identical data, because some of it is always lying.

Distributed Logical Time
23 Feb 2019 | original ↗

A simple, decentralized, scalable, constant-memory mechanism for independent replicas to record events in time, preserving the "happened-before" relation in almost all cases.

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