Limits of Superintelligence

from blog David Crawshaw, | ↗ original
In 2012 Dean et al. published a paper on unsupervised learning using 16000 CPU cores. Seeing machine learning successfully scaled across a modern data center convinced me that human-equivalent and better-than-human AIs were coming soon. In the past few months I've revised my estimates of what soon means, from years to decades. This is quick attempt to jot down my reasoning.
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