Ron Prognosticates: Trump is Going to Win

I'm writing this at 9AM Pacific standard time on November 6, the morning after the election. Not all the dust has quite settled yet, but two things are clear: Donald Trump has won, and the Republicans have taken control of the Senate. The House is still a toss-up, and it's still unclear whether Trump will win the popular vote, but the last time I looked at the numbers he had a pretty commanding lead.I'm writing this at 9AM Pacific standard time on November 6, the morning after the election. Not all the dust has quite settled yet, but two things are clear: Donald Trump has won, and the Republicans have taken control of the Senate. The House is still a toss-up, and it's still unclear whether Trump will win the popular vote, but the last time I looked at the numbers he had a pretty commanding lead.From my political perspective this is about as bad an outcome as I...From my political perspective this is about as bad an outcome as I...

As long as I'm getting things on the record (while I still can without too much fear of reprisal) I want to endorse As long as I'm getting things on the record (while I still can without too much fear of reprisal) I want to endorse a video by Legal Eaglea video by Legal Eagle that lays out the case against voting for Donald Trump in 18 minutes of some of the best video commentary I've ever seen. It's well worth watching, and encouraging others to watch, but just in case you don't want to invest the time and would rather read, I'm posting a (very... that lays out the case against voting for Donald Trump in 18 minutes of some of the best video commentary I've ever seen. It's well worth watching, and encouraging others to watch, but just in case you don't want to invest the time and would rather read, I'm posting a (very...

Yesterday we were treated to the sight of a major party nominee at what was supposed to be a town hall meeting suddenly stop taking questions and Yesterday we were treated to the sight of a major party nominee at what was supposed to be a town hall meeting suddenly stop taking questions and just dancingjust dancing (badly) (badly) for the better part of an hourfor the better part of an hour. A mere 20 years ago, well within living memory, less than . A mere 20 years ago, well within living memory, less than five seconds of screamingfive seconds of screaming were enough to end Howard Dean's political... were enough to end Howard Dean's political...

IntroductionIntroductionThis post is ostensibly about an obscure technical issue in distributed systems, but it's really about human communications, and how disagreements that on the surface appear to be about technical issues can sometimes turn out to actually be disagreements about the meanings of words. I'm taking the time to write a fairly extensive post about this for two reasons. First, I'm hoping it will be helpful to provide a case-study about what appears on the surface to be...This post is ostensibly about an obscure technical issue in distributed systems, but it's really about human communications, and how disagreements that on the surface appear to be about technical issues can sometimes turn out to actually be disagreements about the meanings of words. I'm taking the time to write a fairly extensive post about this for two reasons. First, I'm hoping it will be helpful to provide a case-study about what appears on the surface to be...

(This is part 10 in a (This is part 10 in a series on the scientific methodseries on the scientific method.).)In 1966, well within living memory as I write this in 2024, Digital Equipment Corporation released the In 1966, well within living memory as I write this in 2024, Digital Equipment Corporation released the PDP-10PDP-10, later rebranded as the DECsystem-10 or, more colloquially, the DEC-10. The base model cost , later rebranded as the DECsystem-10 or, more colloquially, the DEC-10. The base model cost