Rondam Ramblings

Preaching the gospel of evidence, experiment and reason since 2003.
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The Bright Side of the Election Results
6 Nov 2024 | original ↗

I'm writing this at 9AM Pacific standard time on November 6, the morning after the election. Not all the dust has quite settled yet, but two things are clear: Donald Trump has won, and the Republicans have taken control of the Senate. The House is still a toss-up, and it's still unclear whether Trump will win the popular vote, but the last time I looked at the numbers he had a pretty commanding lead.I'm writing this at 9AM Pacific standard time on November 6, the morning after the election. Not all the dust has quite settled yet, but two things are clear: Donald Trump has won, and the Republicans have taken control of the Senate. The House is still a toss-up, and it's still unclear whether Trump will win the popular vote, but the last time I looked at the numbers he had a pretty commanding lead.From my political perspective this is about as bad an outcome as I...From my political perspective this is about as bad an outcome as I...

What scares me about a second Trump administration
2 Nov 2024 | original ↗

As long as I'm getting things on the record (while I still can without too much fear of reprisal) I want to endorse As long as I'm getting things on the record (while I still can without too much fear of reprisal) I want to endorse a video by Legal Eaglea video by Legal Eagle that lays out the case against voting for Donald Trump in 18 minutes of some of the best video commentary I've ever seen. It's well worth watching, and encouraging others to watch, but just in case you don't want to invest the time and would rather read, I'm posting a (very... that lays out the case against voting for Donald Trump in 18 minutes of some of the best video commentary I've ever seen. It's well worth watching, and encouraging others to watch, but just in case you don't want to invest the time and would rather read, I'm posting a (very...

Ron Prognosticates: Trump is Going to Win
29 Oct 2024 | original ↗

 I'm too depressed to elaborate much on this, but I just wanted to go on the record with this prediction before the election. Why do I think Trump is going to win? Because  I'm too depressed to elaborate much on this, but I just wanted to go on the record with this prediction before the election. Why do I think Trump is going to win? Because DJT stock is upDJT stock is up and has been rising steadily since it hit an all-time low in late September. It didn't even go down today after yesterday's and has been rising steadily since it hit an all-time low in late September. It didn't even go down today after yesterday's

Have Republicans Ever Actually Listened to the Lyrics of YMCA?
16 Oct 2024 | original ↗

Yesterday we were treated to the sight of a major party nominee at what was supposed to be a town hall meeting suddenly stop taking questions and Yesterday we were treated to the sight of a major party nominee at what was supposed to be a town hall meeting suddenly stop taking questions and just dancingjust dancing (badly) (badly) for the better part of an hourfor the better part of an hour. A mere 20 years ago, well within living memory, less than . A mere 20 years ago, well within living memory, less than five seconds of screamingfive seconds of screaming were enough to end Howard Dean's political... were enough to end Howard Dean's political...

Yes, you can have exactly-once delivery
20 Sept 2024 | original ↗

IntroductionIntroductionThis post is ostensibly about an obscure technical issue in distributed systems, but it's really about human communications, and how disagreements that on the surface appear to be about technical issues can sometimes turn out to actually be disagreements about the meanings of words. I'm taking the time to write a fairly extensive post about this for two reasons. First, I'm hoping it will be helpful to provide a case-study about what appears on the surface to be...This post is ostensibly about an obscure technical issue in distributed systems, but it's really about human communications, and how disagreements that on the surface appear to be about technical issues can sometimes turn out to actually be disagreements about the meanings of words. I'm taking the time to write a fairly extensive post about this for two reasons. First, I'm hoping it will be helpful to provide a case-study about what appears on the surface to be...

Information, Data, and Knowledge
12 Sept 2024 | original ↗

(This is part 10 in a (This is part 10 in a series on the scientific methodseries on the scientific method.).)In 1966, well within living memory as I write this in 2024, Digital Equipment Corporation released the In 1966, well within living memory as I write this in 2024, Digital Equipment Corporation released the PDP-10PDP-10, later rebranded as the DECsystem-10 or, more colloquially, the DEC-10. The base model cost , later rebranded as the DECsystem-10 or, more colloquially, the DEC-10. The base model cost

The Trouble With Big Numbers
15 Aug 2024 | original ↗

This is part of my series on the This is part of my series on the scientific methodscientific method, but it's a bit of a tangent, an interlude if you will, so I'm not giving it a number. As you will see, that will turn out to be metaphorically significant. I'm writing this because my muse Publius raised the problem of infinity in comments on earlier installments in this series, and so I thought it would be worth discussing why these are..., but it's a bit of a tangent, an interlude if you will, so I'm not giving it a number. As you will see, that will turn out to be metaphorically significant. I'm writing this because my muse Publius raised the problem of infinity in comments on earlier installments in this series, and so I thought it would be worth discussing why these are...

Computation: Math and the Church-Turing Thesis
29 Jul 2024 | original ↗

(Part 9 in a series on the (Part 9 in a series on the scientific methodscientific method))In the In the last installmentlast installment of this series I addressed a philosophical question: what does it mean for a mathematical statement to be true? I tackled this in the context of a general definition of scientific truth, namely, that a statement... of this series I addressed a philosophical question: what does it mean for a mathematical statement to be true? I tackled this in the context of a general definition of scientific truth, namely, that a statement...

Sorry about the radio silence
20 Jul 2024 | original ↗

It has been nearly two months since I last posted anything here. This is far from my longest period of radio silence, but in this case it was right in the middle of a series I had been writing on the scientific method, and I really didn't intend to stop and lose momentum. But two things happened. First, I decided to write It has been nearly two months since I last posted anything here. This is far from my longest period of radio silence, but in this case it was right in the middle of a series I had been writing on the scientific method, and I really didn't intend to stop and lose momentum. But two things happened. First, I decided to write a chapter about mathematicsa chapter about mathematics and that turned out to be a much more... and that turned out to be a much more...

My (not) Twitter Account Got Hacked
31 May 2024 | original ↗

My (not) Twitter (I refuse to refer to it by a single letter) account got hacked and so I got to see first-hand how utterly inadequate (not) Twitter's security measures are. The hacker immediately changed both my password and email address so I can no longer access the account and I can't do a password reset. Which is such an incredibly stupid design because My (not) Twitter (I refuse to refer to it by a single letter) account got hacked and so I got to see first-hand how utterly inadequate (not) Twitter's security measures are. The hacker immediately changed both my password and email address so I can no longer access the account and I can't do a password reset. Which is such an incredibly stupid design because of courseof course anyone who breaks into an account is going to do those two things. It's all the more infuriating because... anyone who breaks into an account is going to do those two things. It's all the more infuriating because...

Donald Trump is a Convicted Felon
31 May 2024 | original ↗

The question of whether or not Republicans will nominate a convicted felon to be their candidate for President of the United States is no longer a hypothetical. Unless they can somehow persuade him to withdraw from the race (and good luck with that) they will have no choice. The primaries are over. The convention will just be a rubber stamp. And Trump's conviction will not disqualify him either from the ballot nor from office should he win. Which is still a very real...The question of whether or not Republicans will nominate a convicted felon to be their candidate for President of the United States is no longer a hypothetical. Unless they can somehow persuade him to withdraw from the race (and good luck with that) they will have no choice. The primaries are over. The convention will just be a rubber stamp. And Trump's conviction will not disqualify him either from the ballot nor from office should he win. Which is still a very real...

Truth, Math, and Models
27 May 2024 | original ↗

(Part 8 in a series on the (Part 8 in a series on the scientific methodscientific method))In the last installment I advanced In the last installment I advanced a hypothesis about what truth isa hypothesis about what truth is, which is to say, I suggested a way to , which is to say, I suggested a way to explainexplain the broad consensus that appears to exist about truth. That explanation was: there is an objective reality... the broad consensus that appears to exist about truth. That explanation was: there is an objective reality...

A Scientific Theory of Truth
18 May 2024 | original ↗

(This is part 7 of a series about (This is part 7 of a series about the scientific methodthe scientific method.).)The over-arching theme of this series is that The over-arching theme of this series is that sciencescience can serve as a complete worldview, that it can answer deep philosophical and existential questions normally associated with philosophy or religion. I gave a small... can serve as a complete worldview, that it can answer deep philosophical and existential questions normally associated with philosophy or religion. I gave a small...

Languages are theories: debunking the new riddle of induction and flat-eartherism
5 May 2024 | original ↗

This is the sixth installment in a series about This is the sixth installment in a series about the scientific methodthe scientific method. My central thesis is that science is not just for scientists, it can be used by anyone in just about any situation.. My central thesis is that science is not just for scientists, it can be used by anyone in just about any situation.In In part 2 of this seriespart 2 of this series I gave a few examples of how the scientific method can be... I gave a few examples of how the scientific method can be...

The Scientific Method part 5: Illusions, Delusions, and Dreams
29 Apr 2024 | original ↗

(This is the fifth in a series on (This is the fifth in a series on the scientific methodthe scientific method. ). )Daniel DennettDaniel Dennett died last week. He was a shining light of rationality and clarity in a world that is often a dark and murky place. He was also the author of, among many other works, died last week. He was a shining light of rationality and clarity in a world that is often a dark and murky place. He was also the author of, among many other works,

The Scientific Method, part 4: Eating elephants and The Big News Principle
24 Apr 2024 | original ↗

This is the fourth in a series about This is the fourth in a series about the scientific methodthe scientific method and how it can be applied to everyday life. In this installment I'm going to suggest a way to approach all the science-y stuff without getting overwhelmed. and how it can be applied to everyday life. In this installment I'm going to suggest a way to approach all the science-y stuff without getting overwhelmed.There is an old joke that goes, "How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time." That answer might be good for a laugh, but it wouldn't actually work, either for a...There is an old joke that goes, "How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time." That answer might be good for a laugh, but it wouldn't actually work, either for a...

Three Myths About the Scientific Method
21 Apr 2024 | original ↗

This is the third in a series on This is the third in a series on the scientific methodthe scientific method. This installment is a little bit of a tangent, but I wanted to publish it now because I've gotten tired of having to correct people about these things all the time. I figured if I just wrote this out once and for all I could just point people here rather than having to repeat myself all the time.. This installment is a little bit of a tangent, but I wanted to publish it now because I've gotten tired of having to correct people about these things all the time. I figured if I just wrote this out once and for all I could just point people here rather than having to repeat myself all the time.There are a lot of...There are a lot of...

Feynman, bullies, and invisible pink unicorns
1 Apr 2024 | original ↗

This is the second installment in what I hope will turn out to be a long series about the scientific method. In this segment I want to give three examples of how the scientific method, which I described in the This is the second installment in what I hope will turn out to be a long series about the scientific method. In this segment I want to give three examples of how the scientific method, which I described in the first installmentfirst installment, can be applied to situations that are not usually considered "science-y". By doing this I hope to show you how the scientific method can be used without any..., can be applied to situations that are not usually considered "science-y". By doing this I hope to show you how the scientific method can be used without any...

A Clean-Sheet Introduction to the Scientific Method
17 Mar 2024 | original ↗

  About twenty years ago I inaugurated this blog by writing the following:About twenty years ago I inaugurated this blog by writing the following:"I guess I'll start with the basics: I am a scientist. That is intended to be not so much a description of my profession (though it is that too) as it is a statement about my religious beliefs.""I guess I'll start with the basics: I am a scientist. That is intended to be not so much a description of my profession (though it is that too) as it is a statement about my religious beliefs."I want to re-visit that inaugural statement in light of what I've learned in the twenty years since I first wrote it. In particular, I want to clarify what I mean when I say that being a scientist is a...I want to re-visit that inaugural statement in light of what I've learned in the twenty years since I first wrote it. In particular, I want to clarify what I mean when I say that being a scientist is a...

Why I want to repeal the Second Amendment
4 Feb 2024 | original ↗

About three years ago I wrote About three years ago I wrote a blog post calling for the repeal of the Second Amendmenta blog post calling for the repeal of the Second Amendment to the Constitution of the United States. I hope it goes without saying that I did not (and do not) harbor any illusions about this actually happening any time soon. I wrote it in a fit of frustration at having to watch over and over again the futile ritual that America goes through every time there is... to the Constitution of the United States. I hope it goes without saying that I did not (and do not) harbor any illusions about this actually happening any time soon. I wrote it in a fit of frustration at having to watch over and over again the futile ritual that America goes through every time there is...

Why I Don't Believe in Jesus
23 Nov 2023 | original ↗

My old friend Publius posted a comment (which he has apparently since deleted) on my earlier essay about My old friend Publius posted a comment (which he has apparently since deleted) on my earlier essay about why I don't believe in Godwhy I don't believe in God, saying "the God which Jesus revealed to us is nothing like [the God of the Old Testament]." Setting aside the fact that , saying "the God which Jesus revealed to us is nothing like [the God of the Old Testament]." Setting aside the fact that Jesus disagreedJesus disagreed, I thought it would be worthwhile expanding..., I thought it would be worthwhile expanding...

Why I Don't Believe in God
11 Nov 2023 | original ↗

People occasionally ask me why I don't believe in God. There are a lot of reasons, but I've never bothered to write them down before because most of my reasons are pretty basic and uninteresting: no evidence for God, lots of evidence against the Bible being divinely inspired, yada yada yada. But there is one argument I've started to articulate lately that I've not seen come up very often, and which no one I've presented it to has been able to give an adequate response to. (Well, no...People occasionally ask me why I don't believe in God. There are a lot of reasons, but I've never bothered to write them down before because most of my reasons are pretty basic and uninteresting: no evidence for God, lots of evidence against the Bible being divinely inspired, yada yada yada. But there is one argument I've started to articulate lately that I've not seen come up very often, and which no one I've presented it to has been able to give an adequate response to. (Well, no...

How to explain cardinals vs ordinals to a six-year-old
2 May 2023 | original ↗

This discussionThis discussion on Hacker News on whether infinity is odd or even got me to thinking about the right way to teach kids about infinity, and the difference between cardinals and ordinals. Here's what I came up with. on Hacker News on whether infinity is odd or even got me to thinking about the right way to teach kids about infinity, and the difference between cardinals and ordinals. Here's what I came up with.It is important to realize that numbers can stand for two different kinds of ideas. Numbers can talk about "how many" but they can also talk about "what position". For example, we can talk...It is important to realize that numbers can stand for two different kinds of ideas. Numbers can talk about "how many" but they can also talk about "what position". For example, we can talk...

All together now: the second amendment must be repealed
24 Apr 2023 | original ↗

It has been two years since It has been two years since I first called for the repeal of the second amendmentI first called for the repeal of the second amendment. (Someone has to be the first.) It seems like a complete no-brainer to me that we need to at least . (Someone has to be the first.) It seems like a complete no-brainer to me that we need to at least saysay the obvious truth that the second amendment is a relic of the past and has no place in a modern technological society, if for no other reason than to start moving the the obvious truth that the second amendment is a relic of the past and has no place in a modern technological society, if for no other reason than to start moving the

Bitcoin's value proposition: screwup postmortem
14 Apr 2023 | original ↗

A Blogger user going by the handle A Blogger user going by the handle SatoshiSatoshi [1] pointed out that [1] pointed out that I made a major mistakeI made a major mistake in my analysis of in my analysis of rental attacks on Bitcoinrental attacks on Bitcoin. The numbers I was using for the . The numbers I was using for the

A systematic critique of Bitcoin's value proposition
12 Apr 2023 | original ↗

1. Introduction1. IntroductionThis essay was originally entitled "Bitcoin's design contains the seeds of its own destruction". The thesis was going to be that Bitcoin's security depends entirely on consuming vast quantities of energy, and so any value it might offer is outweighed by its inherent costs. But when I did the math, that turns out not to be true. Bitcoin does use a lot of energy, but not nearly as much as I initially thought. Unfortunately, this is not necessarily good news....This essay was originally entitled "Bitcoin's design contains the seeds of its own destruction". The thesis was going to be that Bitcoin's security depends entirely on consuming vast quantities of energy, and so any value it might offer is outweighed by its inherent costs. But when I did the math, that turns out not to be true. Bitcoin does use a lot of energy, but not nearly as much as I initially thought. Unfortunately, this is not necessarily good news....

Uncomputable things: Chaitin's constant, Busy Beavers, and Kolmogorov complexity
4 Mar 2023 | original ↗

1. Introduction 1. Introduction The other day I was watching The other day I was watching this Numberphile videothis Numberphile video about (among other things) about (among other things) uncomputable numbersuncomputable numbers when I came across when I came across this sectionthis section around the 6:50 mark where Matt Parker talks about around the 6:50 mark where Matt Parker talks about

Lisping at JPL Revisited
28 Jan 2023 | original ↗

It has been over 20 years since I wrote "It has been over 20 years since I wrote "Lisping at JPLLisping at JPL", half memoir and half geeky screed (and all of it half-baked) about how an obscure programming language came to define my career. It was a borderline throwaway piece written as much to vent my spleen as to inform. In the intervening two decades it has gotten ", half memoir and half geeky screed (and all of it half-baked) about how an obscure programming language came to define my career. It was a borderline throwaway piece written as much to vent my spleen as to inform. In the intervening two decades it has gotten a lot more attentiona lot more attention......

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