What is the value of an estimate?

from blog Forkcasting, | ↗ original
Let's start with a thought experiment. Someone says you can bet $100 on a loaded coin flip. You get $200 if you're right and lose your stake otherwise. You can also decline to bet. Ignoring the the really deep questions like "why is this weirdo carrying around a loaded coin?", "if they're offering me a bet they expect to profit, right?", and "how...