You Need to be Wrong (Sometimes)

from blog Ben Congdon, | ↗ original
To be a well-calibrated predictor, you need to to be wrong (sometimes). “Well-calibrated” means that if you predict something occurs with X% probability, then that event actually occurs X% of the time. Since predictions are often made on one-off events, another way of expressing calibration is that X% of predictions that you made with X%...