Small probabilities add, big ones don’t

from blog John D. Cook, | ↗ original
A video has been making the rounds in which a well-known professor [1] says that if something has a 20% probability of happening in one attempt, then it has a 40% chance of happening in two attempts, a 60% chance in happening in three attempts, etc. This is wrong, but it’s a common mistake. And […] The post Small probabilities add, big ones don’t...