Pandemic probability

from blog Forkcasting, | ↗ original
I estimate there is 8% probability of the WHO declaring a new pandemic in any given year. I estimate it's 7% in 2021. Historically, there is an 8% chance of the WHO declaring a new pandemic. An on-going pandemic does not stop a new one starting, but COVID-19 controls may help stop an outbreak, like the it has made this year's flu activity much...